Motivation and Background
- Today, as it has for decades, most operational streamflow forecasting depends on an interwoven blend of automated data processing routines and the manual interventions and additions of expert human forecasters.
- In the last several decades, numerous datasets, models, techniques and technological resources have indicated great potential for upgrading the hydrologic forecast practice, yet many of these are incompatible with the current ‘In-the-Loop’ forecasting approach.
- As a result, a number of promising potential advances have yet to be implemented in practice. Experience is still limited in operational and research communities to indicate their effectiveness in producing actionable hydrologic forecast information.
- Streamflow forecasting represents a key adaptation and risk management strategy for water resources in the face of climate non-stationarity, thus there is a pressing need to open the door to well-designed 'Over-the-Loop' approaches.
The Weather Forecasting Analogy
- Three decades ago, weather forecasting advanced from 'In-the-Loop' approaches to the modern 'Over-the-Loop' practice translating automated numerical weather prediction (NWP) system outputs into public advisories and other forecast data products.
In-the-Loop forecasting map analysis
Modern Over-the-Loop practice -- the forecaster interprets NWP system output
Project Objectives
- To raise community awareness about the feasibility, benefits and implications of a purely Over-the-Loop streamflow prediction paradigm for generating actionable forecast information to support water resources and hazard management.
Project Strategy
- Create a public real-time testbed for evaluating and demonstrating Over-the-Loop approaches for streamflow forecasting from days to seasons ahead lead times.
Project Sponsors
- This project is supported by the US Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation, and NOAA.