Short/Medium Range Forecasts
Daily ensemble flow forecasts are run for a number of case study watersheds, some of which are displayed here. Content varies as the system develops. Click the links below to access different forecast locations and system info.
| ID | Region | Name |
|
HHWM8 |
PNW | Hungry Horse Res. Inflow (MT) |
|
DWRI1 |
PNW | Dworshak Res. Inflow (ID) |
|
HHDW1 |
PNW | Howard Hanson Res. Inflow (WA) |
|
LYDM8 |
PNW | LYDM8 Libby Res. Inflow (MT) |
|
PRVO |
PNW | Prineville Res. Inflow (OR) |
|
CSHW1 |
PNW | Cushman Res. Inflow (WA) |
|
ALRW1 |
PNW | Alder Res. Inflow (WA) |
|
MSRW1 |
PNW | Mossyrock Res. Inflow (WA) |
|
NFDC1 |
CALI | N. Fork American R. - N. Fork Dam (CA) |
|
MRMC1 |
CALI | Middle Fork Feather R. - Merrimac (CA) |
| System Diagnostics | ||
| System Status | ||
| Medium-range Home | ||
Current forecast
Notice: The real-time forecast system is being refactored to include new models and forcings. Real-time products are not currently being updated online.
The short-to-medium range forecast plots are updated each morning. The main forecast plots show a fully automated ('Over-the-Loop') NCAR ensemble prediction for at least 7 days lead time (15 day predictions are in development). Where available, operational forecasts from the NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs) and National Water Model (another 'over-the-loop' system) are also shown.
The forecasts are generated from a data processing and forecasting workflow that can be viewed with the System Status link. This page is useful primarily for system developers, but also provides some insight into the steps taken to make a forecast.
Additional data and model diagnostics are also viewable via the System Diagnostics link. The contents of the diagnostics page will evolved depending on developer interest.
Current forecasts and forecasts from previous 10 days
Watershed model calibration summary plot
Model parameters are estimated via an automated multi-objective optimization routine (eg., MOCOM), and a single parameter set from the pareto-optimal results is selected for forecasting. Flow units in the plot below are mm/d.
